This might have been the moment when the Gunners have lost the title race this season. Arsenal lost 2-0 to Aston Villa on Sunday to slip to 2nd place in the Premier League, 2 points behind Manchester City. Of course, it’s not over mathematically since there are 6 games left. But even if the Citizens drop points in one of their remaining games, Arsenal would still need a perfect run to unseat the defending champions.
Photo credit: Premier League
Arteta made 3 changes to the side that drew with Bayern Munich on Tuesday with Jesus, Trossard and Zinchenko replacing Jorginho, Martinelli and Kiwior in the starting lineup. Basically, Arteta stuck with the Gunners who played in the second half against Bayern Munich. I guess the Spanish manager wanted to see how they would play in the second leg against the German club and if they were good enough to beat the Villans. Both the result and the performance have raised more questions instead of providing answers.
Arsenal had 18 shots, 1 big chance and 1.62 xG to 11 shots, 2 big chances and 1.13 xG for the Villans, according to Opta. The Gunners were the better team in the first half. Havertz took a pass from Trossard in the 11th minute to test Martinez with an angled strike. Jesus and Saka also had decent chances but missed the target in the 18th and the 20th, respectively.
The turning point of the match was Arsenal’s big chance in the 40th when a long-range effort from Odegaard took a big deflection off Torres and the ball bounced into the path of Jesus. The Brazil striker squared the ball back for Trossard, whose 6-yard shot was saved by Martinez’s foot. If Trossard converts that big chance, we have a completely different game because the Gunners have always come away with the 3 points in the Premier League when they lead at halftime this season.
Fitness levels dropping in the second half
Villa created very little in the first half but nearly took the lead in the 39th when Magalhaes made a sloppy pass. The ball hit Zinchenko in the back and fell to Watkins, who fired a low drive that bounced off the far post. The Gunners didn’t learn their lesson as they were sloppy again in the 62nd. Instead of slipping the ball to Saka, Zinchenko tried to dribble in his defensive third and was dispossessed by Tielemans, whose long-range strike rattled the woodwork.
Arsenal’s fitness levels dropped in the second half. There was a lack of movement and the passing in the final third was not as sharp as usual. The Gunners had 10 shots inside the area in the first half but just 1 shot inside the area after the break, an 18-yard shot from Rice in the 60th. In fact, Arsenal only managed to have 1 decent chance. Saka teed up Jesus for a 22-yard effort that Martinez palmed away in the 64th.
The Villans dominated ball possession and were the better team in the second half. Arteta replaced Trossard and White with Martinelli and Tomiyasu in the 67th. White had received a yellow card while Martinelli provided more pace than Trossard. Those substitutions didn’t stop the Gunners from losing the control of the game.
I thought Arteta waited too long to inject some freshness in midfield by sending on Jorginho and Smith-Rowe for Odegaard and Jesus in the 79th. Havertz moved into the centerforward position to provide more physicality in the box while Jorginho was supposed to bring more fluidity in our passing game. Both Rice and Odegaard looked leggy, but Arteta kept Rice on the pitch to still have 1 substitution left.
The Villans had 0 corner kick in the first half. Their spells of possession in the second half gave them 6 corner kicks. Villa capitalized on a recycled corner to take the lead in the 84th. Digne made a low cross to the far post where Bailey stabbed the ball home. The Gunners lost all their duels on that play. Zinchenko failed to track Digne’s run, Havertz couldn’t stop Digne’s cross, Torres got ahead of Magalhaes at the near post, Raya came off his line but couldn’t catch or palm the ball away, and both Martinelli and Rice failed to mark Bailey at the far post.
Defensive naivety (again)
The Gunners conceded a second goal by showing defensive naivety in the 87th. Villa cleared an Arsenal corner and the ball fell to Zinchenko, who found Jorginho in midfield. An impatient Jorginho attempted to slip a through ball to Martinelli, who was in an offside position anyway. Tielemans intercepted Jorginho’s pass and hit a long ball toward Watkins. The Villa striker held off Smith-Rowe before chipping Raya.
As you can see on the screen captures below, the defensive setup for the Arsenal corner was poor. Smith-Rowe shouldn’t have been in the position of the last defender. It should have been Rice or Tomiyasu marking Watkins. Smith-Rowe obviously lacked defensive awareness because he seemed to play Watkins offside even though a player can’t be offside when he makes a run from his own half.
Jorginho attempts a through ball as Smith-Rowe is the last defender. (Photo credit: Sky)
Then Magalhaes and Saliba were caught ball-watching. As soon as Tielemans got hold of the ball, Magalhaes and Saliba should have been running back toward their own goal. But the Arsenal centerbacks seemed to press high up the pitch as if they were not aware of Watkins’ presence behind them.
Magalhaes and Saliba are not aware of Watkins’ threat as Tielemans intercepts the ball. (Photo credit: Sky)
This was Arsenal’s first defeat in the Premier League since December. So far, Arsenal’s title bid has rested on a tight defense and a clinical offense. On Sunday, the Gunners have conceded as many goals as they did in their 8 previous Premier League games. The Gunners also missed their only big chance whereas the Villans converted their 2 big chances.
The most worrying part is that the Gunners are showing signs of fatigue like they did in the run-in last season. They could be paying the price for Arteta’s lack of rotation. By contrast, Manchester City’s manager Guardiola left on the bench regular starters like Walker, Ake, Rodri, Silva and Foden in the 5-1 win over Luton on Saturday.
Jesus’ inconsistency
Jesus got the nod in the centerforward position after his bright cameo against Bayern Munich. His performance against Villa was a mixed bag. On the one hand, Jesus created Arsenal’s only big chance and forced Martinez into a save. Jesus was also tidy in possession with a passing accuracy of 92.9% and had 2 successful dribbles out of 3, according to whoscored.com. On the other hand, Jesus was caught offside twice and wasted 2 good situations. His decision-making was poor in the 18th when he headed a cross from Saka wide instead of heading the ball across goal for an unmarked Trossard. Then Jesus lacked accuracy with his final ball for Trossard in the 43rd.
Jesus has let the team down with his inconsistency. On paper, Jesus is Arsenal’s star striker, but he has racked up only 4 goals and 3 assists in the Premier League this season. Nketiah came off the bench just after the second goal and indirectly helped the Villans waste time by making 2 silly fouls.
On the left wing, Trossard knew that he missed a big chance in the 40th as he held his head between his hands after Martinez’s save. Trossard made the mistake of shooting down the middle of the net instead of guiding the ball into the far corner. The Belgium international also created a decent chance for Havertz in the 11th.
Arteta replaced Trossard with Martinelli in the 67th. Trossard is a better option to combine in tight spaces when the Gunners dominate possession. But the Villans were the team having the ball in the second half, so using Martinelli’s pace on the fast break made sense. Martinelli had no impact in the final third and even showed a lack of defensive awareness by failing to mark Bailey in the build-up to the opening goal.
Losing the midfield battle
On the right wing, Saka tried hard but had no success with 0 of 4 shots on target. He fired into the side-netting in the 20th, headed a cross over the bar in the 38th, missed the target with an acrobatic volley in the 40th and curled wide of the far post in the 41st. The Villans closely monitored Saka and didn’t give him a chance to produce a moment of magic by fouling him 4 times, more than any other player.
Despite the rough conditions, Saka still made an impact in the final third by creating 2 decent chances for Jesus and contributed to the team’s ball progression with 4 progressive passes and 6 progressive carries, according to fbref.com. Saka led all players with 3 key passes and could have raised his tally to 4 if he had not overhit his cross for Havertz in the 8th minute.
Arsenal lost the control of the game in the second half because Villa won the midfield battle. McGinn, Tielemans and Rogers combined to make 32 defensive actions (7 tackles, 6 blocks, 4 interception, 15 recoveries) compared to 23 defensive actions (5 tackles, 2 blocks, 1 interception, 15 recoveries) for Rice (13), Odegaard (6) and Havertz (4), according to fbref.com. It was like the Gunners were missing a player in the middle of the park.
Arteta made a big call by moving Havertz back into midfield after a successful spell in the false nine role. You can understand Arteta’s rationale here. By using Havertz in the left No. 8 position, Arteta can have 5 attacking players in the team instead of 4. Havertz took advantage of his deep position to make some smart runs. He tested Martinez with an angled strike in the 11th and created a chance for Saka in the 38th. The Germany international also won 4 of 6 aerial duels, according to whoscored.com.
The obvious downside is that Havertz doesn’t have the passing skills of Jorginho or Partey. His passing accuracy of 73.9% was mediocre compared to 86.4% for Odegaard and 90% for Rice. Out of possession, Havertz didn’t contribute much defensively. He was dribbled past twice and failed to stop Digne’s cross for the opening goal.
Zinchenko’s poor defensive instincts
Odegaard led all players with 12 progressive passes and had 3 successful dribbles out of 5, according to fbref.com. The Norway playmaker created a chance for Saka with a through ball in the 20th and hit a long ball toward Havertz in the 29th, but Carlos sprinted back to knock the ball out of play before Havertz could pull the trigger.
Odegaard was brilliant in the first half but faded in the second half. He has been the fifth most used player in the Arsenal squad behind Saliba, Magalhaes, Rice and White this season. While Guardiola has rested Silva and De Bruyne, Arteta has rarely given Odegaard a break. There was an injury scare in the 66th when Carlos hit Odegaard in the chest with an overhead kick attempt. Arteta replaced Odegaard with Smith-Rowe in the 79th, but it was too little too late. Smith-Rowe had no shot and no key pass and inexplicably ended up in the position of the last defender for the second goal.
At the back, Zinchenko’s limitations were exposed by the Villans, who targeted the Ukraine international. Diaby made a run in behind Zinchenko to chase a long ball from Watkins in the 5th minute, but Raya came off his line to win the ball. Konsa also outpaced Zinchenko in the 82nd to make a cross that was blocked by Magalhaes.
The problem with Zinchenko is that he doesn’t think like a defender. His poor defensive instincts led Zinchenko to drop too deep a couple of times instead of playing his opponent offside. Zinchenko put his team in danger in the 62nd by trying to dribble in the defensive third. He also failed to track Digne’s run for the opening goal, forcing Havertz to cover him. Zinchenko’s passing skills outweigh his defensive limitations against the weak teams. But it’s the opposite against the top teams. Zinchenko had 4 turnovers compared to 2 for Saliba, 1 for Magalhaes and 1 for White, according to whoscored.com. I think Zinchenko would be better used in the Xhaka role. Ironically, Emery and Arteta also played Xhaka as a leftback.
Rotation headaches
On the opposite flank, White was more reliable defensively. He made 12 defensive actions (6 tackles, 3 blocks, 1 interception, 2 recoveries), trailing only Rice among the Gunners. Despite receiving a yellow card for pulling back Zaniolo in the 35th, White kept the Italian winger in check. White was even able to contribute offensively with 2 key passes.
In the heart of the defense, Magalhaes and Saliba had contrasting fortunes. Saliba had a good game, winning 4 of 4 aerial duels, leading all starters with a passing accuracy of 93.8% and playing a key role in the team’s ball progression with 6 progressive passes and 2 progressive carries. The France defender bullied Watkins to win the ball in the 24th but let his guard down for the second goal.
Both Saliba and Magalhaes probably no longer had the energy to chase Watkins in the 87th. Arteta loves centerbacks who can play out from the back under pressure. But Magalhaes has made some sloppy passes lately. His inaccurate pass for Kiwior led to Bayern Munich’s equalizer. Then another poor pass gave Watkins a chance in the 39th.
Magalhaes nearly conceded a penalty in the 45th when he caught Rogers with a high boot. In his first couple of years at Arsenal, Magalhaes looked like a Brazilian Mustafi. But Magalhaes has learned and cut the mistakes out of his game. In fact, he has made no game-changing blunder (red card, penalty or error leading to a goal) in the Premier League this season. Magalhaes could have prevented the opening goal by clearing Digne’s cross but Torres got ahead of him at the near post.
The Gunners next visit Bayern Munich in the Champions League on Wednesday before playing Wolverhampton in the Premier League on Saturday. Reaching the last four of the top European competition would be an achievement for Arsenal, but Arteta will have to fix the defense because the German side will again try to hit the Gunners on the fast break with quick, vertical passes.
Then Arteta will face the issue of rotation for the Wolverhampton game. The Gunners had 2 more days of rest than the Villans, who played Lille in the Europa Conference League last Thursday. Yet, Villa finished stronger than Arsenal on Sunday. Will Arteta rest some regular starters against Wolves or will he simply replace them in the second half? The outcome of those next 2 games could define Arsenal’s season.